Gold soars through $1300

Gold has now rallied over 10% since December 31. This, in the words of one analyst who achieved widespread publicity was meant to be “a slam-dunk sell”. Instead, gold has soared through its 50-day moving average as well as the 200. Furthermore, the 200-day is itself turning round and will shortly be rising. Technical analysts are beginning to think about a trend reversal signalled by a “golden cross”, with the 50-day moving average crossing above a rising 200.The news background this week has been remarkably dull, with minor currencies consolidating against the US dollar along with equity markets. Risk investment has been marginally favoured, and gold could have been expected to decline. Instead precious metals have outperformed everything else, rising $50 on the week.
There is a developing problem in the market which is underwriting precious metal prices. We know physical supplies are tight, with record demand in Shanghai (256 tonnes delivered in January) and London’s GOFO rate has turned negative again out to three months. The shortage of physical bullion and the better price trend are happening with a high level of short positions for the trend-chasers who are generally committed to a continuing bear market. The charts below are short positions of the Managed Money (hedge funds) category on Comex.

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